When College is About the Job

Key Moments

00:00 The Decline in College Enrollment

03:13 The Importance of Job Guarantee and Economic Security

05:13 The Value of Job Training and Professional Certificates

15:19 The Need for Colleges to Explain Their Value and Support Students

Links

HCM Strategists

Gates Foundation

Transcript

Michael Horn:

As recently as 2016, 70% of high school graduates were still going straight to college, but now the figure is down to 62%. Clearly there's something going on with college enrollment.

Jeff Selingo:

And Michael, we can blame COVID, we can blame FAFSA this year. But as I mentioned in one of my most recent newsletters, there's really something bigger going on with college enrollment right now, a tectonic shift that really no one can explain. But new research suggests that public doubts about the value of a college degree might be a key contributor, and we're going to dig into that research today on Future You.

Sponsor:

This episode is brought to you by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Working to eliminate race, ethnicity, and income as predictors of student success through innovation, data and information, policy and institutional transformation. Subscribe to Future You wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy the show, share it with your friends so others can discover the conversations we're having about higher education.

Michael Horn:

I'm Michael Horn.

Jeff Selingo:

And I'm Jeff Selingo. Michael, the enrollment cliff that's talked about so often in higher ed is not coming, it's already here. Angel Pérez who heads up NACAC, the National Association of College Admissions Counseling, told me recently.

Michael Horn:

And Jeff, I think we've outlined some of these stats before, but let's put them all in one place for our listeners. Undergraduate enrollment in the US peaked in 2011 at 18.1 million students, and then it began a slide for the rest of the last decade. And then of course there was the pandemic when higher ed lost more than 1.3 million in enrollment.

Jeff Selingo:

And let me just read this, Michael, which comes from Paul Tough's cover story in the New York Times Magazine from last fall. And he writes this, "Americans' feelings about higher education have turned sharply negative. The percentage of young adults who said that a college degree is very important fell to 41% from 74%. Only about a third of Americans now say they have a lot of confidence in higher education. Among young Americans and generation Z, 45% say that a high school diploma is all you need today to ensure financial security. And in contrast to the college focused parents of a decade ago, now almost half of American parents say they prefer that their children not enroll in a four year college."

Michael Horn:

Wow. Okay. So when you put it like that, Jeff, where do we begin?

Jeff Selingo:

That's certainly true, Michael. And so we're actually going to start with Terrell Dunn on the first half of this show today. Terrell has worked at the state and federal level, including in the White House on education and healthcare policy. She's now an independent consultant and one of the founders of HCM Strategists, a public policy consulting firm, that along with Edge Research, conducted these really interesting focus groups and national surveys of current high school students and of adults who decided to leave college or who didn't go at all. And what they wanted to try to do through that work was connect the value proposition of a college degree and what Americans do after high school. The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, so we should mention it's also a supporter of this podcast. Terrell, welcome to Future You.

Terrell Dunn:

Thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it.

Jeff Selingo:

So in 2022, you in partnership with Edge Research and the Gates Foundation, you did this study to better understand what's driving college enrollment declines. And the same group of organizations then got together again to do a sequel to that study, which was just released in March. But what was different this time around?

Terrell Dunn:

I think a couple of things we found were different. First of all, I would say the groups of students that we talked to were a little bit different. We included high school juniors and seniors. And we looked at some differences between how high school juniors and seniors are looking at approaching college and what we call non-enrollees, 18 to 30 year olds who either never went or went to a two or four year and dropped out and didn't complete a degree. And so what we found that was interesting that was different amongst those groups is really around the places where these two groups get their information about college. And so how that's impacting how they're making decisions. We found a lot of similar views, but slightly more negative as you would expect from the non-enrollees.

Jeff Selingo:

And how does each group view the relationship between going to college and getting a good job and how has that changed over time?

Terrell Dunn:

Yes. So what is interesting is that both groups really view going to college as about getting a job and long-term economic security. The non-enrollees hold that view a little bit more strongly than the high school students do. But really the top four reasons we saw for going to college all relate to that. Am I going to get a job? Am I going to get a good job? Am I going to get a job that will provide me economic stability over time? What we found that was a little bit different is that the non-enrollees feel a little bit more strongly about the value of things other than a two and four year degree. So job training, for example, or a certificate or licensure kind of course. Both groups thought those had more value than a two or four year degree, but the non-enrollees think it has a little bit more value, let's say, than the high school juniors and seniors do.

Jeff Selingo:

But the non-enrollees still thought a job very important post high school?

Terrell Dunn:

Absolutely

Jeff Selingo:

Right. But they just didn't see a two or four year college as the vehicle necessarily for getting that job?

Terrell Dunn:

That's right. Because of not only the cost, that's a thing of course, but it's the trade-offs that they have to make to get a college degree. So am I going to have to stop working while I go to college in order to do it successfully? Am I not going to be able to take care of my family while I do that? They may even believe that the long-term value of a college degree is there, but it's not worth those trade-offs that they have to make in the short term.

Michael Horn:

So those trade-offs are really interesting to think about. Let's dig deeper into what are the most influential factors undermining both groups' confidence in higher education as being that pathway? And how do the thoughts, feelings, and attitudes then of these two groups differ along those lines?

Terrell Dunn:

That's a really great question. So I think that what we saw very clearly in the data is that there is a desire for almost a guarantee that if I choose to spend the money and the time on a four year degree, I know for certain I'm going to get a job that relates to what I studied, what my interests are, where my skills are coming out of it the other end. And the non-enrollees feel that the guarantee may not quite be there. I would say the high school students still view that they want that guarantee or they want real help and supports driving them to that right outcome at the end of college.

Terrell Dunn:

But the non-enrollees really take into account is is there going to be a guarantee? They're willing to invest the money and the time if they know that that's there on the backend. But they don't really believe that. They see a lot of, we saw this more in the focus groups than the online survey. They see a lot of influencers, friends, colleagues who started, who have a job that's not in what they went to college for, that are paying back lots and lots of student loans for being the underemployed issue that we see. Right?

Michael Horn:

Yeah, I mean it's interesting just the source of information around influencers there that you heard in the focus groups. You also said that this isn't really a cost issue so much, it's more about what comes on the other end. Just tell us more about where these groups get their information about college and perhaps how that impacts their attitudes. And then the post-secondary paths that they do or don't take.

Terrell Dunn:

It was really interesting. So we asked each group, where do you get your information from? High schools get their information from school counselors, their parents, their friends, teachers. The non-enrollees basically just have to Google information about colleges. Information is not directed towards them in the same way it's directed to the high school community. So they're having to dig it out on their own. What we see because of that is that high schoolers get much more positive information about college than non-enrollees do because they're seeing it in news stories and in social media and those sorts of things where you tend... And we did see a correlation between if you receive positive information, you're more likely to go, if you receive negative information, you're less likely to go. And so these two groups are really getting different sources of information and it's slightly more negative for the non-enrollees, so they're less likely to enroll.

Jeff Selingo:

So Terrell, I know that you've done this now twice, so you can't necessarily go way back in time. But a word you used about guarantee caught me because there's never really been a guarantee that college will get you a job, it'd always been assumed. And for generations it really almost was like a guarantee, but it was never really a guarantee. So why does this group now, do you think, and again, I understand you have to probably estimate this now because you don't have the data necessarily, but why does this group want a guarantee? What has changed do you think?

Terrell Dunn:

I do think it's because there's been a lot... Two reasons I'll cite. There has been a lot of talk about the value of college, whether it's in the media, whether it's work that's being funded by foundations and advocacy groups, et cetera. So questioning what is the value of higher education? So that's just out there in the universe. And I think the second thing is really that the costs are so much higher now as a share of income or your household's income, for example, that if you're going to make that kind of investment, that really big investment, you really got to know that it's going to be worth it.

Jeff Selingo:

Yeah. So let's talk a little bit more about how things have changed over time and where does college rank relative to other post-secondary options for each of these groups? You mentioned trade schools, obviously one of the things that has changed over the last decade plus. Michael and I just got back from ASU+GSV recently, and there's a proliferation of other providers of education, not just traditional colleges and universities, and not even just traditional trades and not just traditional apprenticeships and things like that. So there's a proliferation. So where does college rank relative to these other post-secondary options for each of these groups?

Terrell Dunn:

Yeah. It falls in the middle of the pack. So we asked, we gave them a list, and which of these things provide an excellent or a good value? On the job training, a course to receive a license or a course to receive a professional certificate were the three that ranked the highest for both groups, for both high schoolers and the non-enrollees. Then come the four and two-year college degree. And then after that were trade school, a single subject course or bootcamp programs. And bootcamp programs came in at the bottom of the pack. I think that's probably a change we've seen over time. Maybe five years ago it would've been higher on the list. But on the job training and courses leading directly to a certificate or a license were the ones that really held the most value for both groups.

Michael Horn:

Super interesting. I wonder how AI has also perhaps changed the perception of boot camps as a good investment? But let's-

Terrell Dunn:

Good question, right?

Michael Horn:

Yeah. Let's just finish up with how you thought about the go-forward actions from here. What do you propose to help people more successfully navigate the various options for their post-secondary pathways?

Terrell Dunn:

Yeah, we asked about a whole series of supports and what would be most valuable to you as a student or a potential student. So eliminating debt when you get a degree came in at number one. I don't think that's really shocking. But very close behind that are having experts assigned to you. And experts in a couple of different ways. Experts that help you navigate college. So making sure that you're taking the right classes so that you graduate on time so that you don't waste a lot of time and money while you're in college.

Terrell Dunn:

But then the next one down the list is really either programs or experts in high school who help you understand what kind of jobs relate to your interests and your skills so that you pick the right major to begin with. And then having somebody who's an expert in the field you want to go into help you figure out how do I get an apprenticeship or an internship program or get a job coming out of it. So they're really looking for people to help guide them both through the college experience in an efficient and effective way, as well as experts who will help them find the right thing once they've completed a degree.

Jeff Selingo:

So Terrell, before we go to a break, I just want to sneak in one final question here because this idea that college is in the middle of the pack for post-secondary options is just pretty surprising and shocking in many ways. Although in some ways, I guess it is not that shocking because if you look at all the surveys out there, it's just pretty consistent with what we've been hearing. But I will tell you that when I talk to college presidents and other leaders within academia, when I talk to college trustees, they still seem to think, we're number one. We're still up here. Everybody wants to come to us. This is a marketing problem or whatever it is. But there still seems to be something deeper happening here that college leaders still don't seem to get, do they?

Terrell Dunn:

I think that's absolutely right. I really view this as a problem that institutions have. This isn't a problem that these potential students have. They need to do a better job both explaining their value, why you should make this investment of time and money and what we're going to give you or what you're going to get out of this at the end of the day. And I also think institutions really need to recognize the reasons kids go to college is to get a good job, to get economic stability, to get social and economic mobility over time. And so how is this college degree going to help you? We all talk about the economists and the data and the things that we know about the long-term value of college. And these potential students aren't privy to, we haven't shared that information in a way that makes sense, I think, or that really helps convince them that the long-term benefit is worth the short-term trade-off.

Jeff Selingo:

Just fascinating stuff. Terrell, thank you so much for being here and for doing this work.

Terrell Dunn:

Absolutely. Thank you so much for having me and the opportunity to talk about it.

Jeff Selingo:

And we'll be right back on Future You.

Sponsor:

This episode is being brought to you by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Today's college students are more than just students. They're workers, parents and caregivers and neighbors. And colleges and universities need to change to meet their changing needs. Learn more about the foundation's efforts to transform institutions to be more student-centered at usprogram.gatesfoundation.org.

Jeff Selingo:

Welcome back to Future You off that conversation with Terrell Dunn. So much to discuss here, Michael. So let's just jump in and get started. First of all, everyone thinks going to college is about getting a job. So I just want to start off by something that came up on a recent episode with Dave Clayton of Strata, whether a job now is a basic function of a college education. You remember, you outlined it with that Kano model on that episode? And as Terrell said earlier, the top four reasons for going to college in this study all related to the job. Am I going to get a job? Am I going to get a good job? Am I going to get a job that will provide me economic stability over time?

Jeff Selingo:

So after that Dave Clayton episode, I posted that question to my LinkedIn followers. Is it a college's job to find students a job? Because I think historically colleges never thought it was their job to find students a job. I don't know about you, but I certainly didn't think that when I went to college in the 1990s that the college should find me a job. But now I'm starting to wonder, has that mindset changed? And in order to make gains in enrollment again, should there be some sort of direct job function where colleges really almost act as an employment agency or talent factory that I think so far they pushed back against.

Michael Horn:

Yeah, and when you put it that way, Jeff, also, historically, you're right. When I went to college, it never occurred to me that they might do this sort of work. But I guess the way I think about it anyway is that more colleges ought to be doing things like copying Northeastern. They ought to be building co-ops and externships into the academic model itself. They could be building real work into the courses themselves. You can use Riipen or Parker Dewey if you want to not build that capacity yourself. But it ought to be part of the curriculum.

Michael Horn:

Similar maybe to what the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois is doing with experiential learning. They ought to be intentionally making sure that students get real jobs and they can explore apprenticeships as well. I think the point is though, make real work with real stakes attached a part of the curriculum so that students gain experience and then they're building their social capital and network and developing a deeper understanding of what drives their energy when they work, what drains it, what do they hate doing, what assets do they have right now, and what do they want to develop in themselves?

Michael Horn:

In other words, how can they actually contribute? And so I don't know that that's an employment agency per se, although I will note that a number of schools like DePaul University are increasingly offering varieties of job guarantees upon graduation. But I do think it's something that's much more integrated with society and the world of work, and I would think it could be attractive to professors in many departments because they can actually take their expertise from the research and put it into practice and help solve real problems, Jeff.

Jeff Selingo:

Yeah. Well, let me jump in there, Michael, actually, because I recently did a poll on LinkedIn as well, and it was really striking. Now I know LinkedIn polls are not exactly scientific, but we had several hundred people answer it. And the question I asked was this, how should colleges make work more central to the student experience? And the second highest answer, at 27%, was guarantee a job at graduation. Now I admit, I'm not quite sure how a job guarantee would exactly work. But it was striking that the choice was higher than the other two. One was require students to have a job and the other think work first and school second so that work really leads and school comes second. The only thing that was higher than a job guarantee, improve campus jobs, and that was at 37%. And I think we can all get behind that because I think that campus jobs are really suffering from things that are just not good for most students right now in terms of what they need in the workforce.

Jeff Selingo:

Now, more broadly, what I think all of this is speaking to is what we saw pretty clearly in the data in the HCM survey among non-enrollees. Which is that they're saying that the opportunity cost of higher education, meaning giving up on a job and earning money now and going to college, that's that opportunity cost, it just seems like too tall of a ladder to climb anymore. And Michael, that's frankly shocking to me because higher ed has, at least since the recession of the early 1980s, which effectively killed off a lot of manufacturing jobs, colleges have always been able to say, "It's okay, don't work at all or take a low paying job for a few years while you go to school. You're going to be able to make it up over your lifetime."

Jeff Selingo:

And it's clear now that changes in the job market in the last couple of years, jobs at Chipotle are paying better now and Amazon warehouses are now paying enough or at least more than they did pre-pandemic, that workers are saying it isn't worth it anymore, college. Especially when you combine it with the cost of college. So they're getting more money in their jobs and the cost of college has also gone up. So maybe that finding isn't surprising if somebody would forgo college for a paid gig now. Maybe it's just that they don't value college, so work is more important to them. But what was frankly more shocking to me is that non-enrollees, according to this survey, they value the degree, they want that degree. It's something they want in the long run. And even they think the opportunity cost is too high. So it's not that they don't value the degree and they just want this money now. They think the opportunity cost is too high and they value the degree.

Jeff Selingo:

That to me is just, wow, I'm just really surprised by that finding. Really, it's really worrisome for colleges and universities. And so what this shows me, I think, is that the only way to re-engage these non-enrollees, and frankly high school students, is to stop talking about the choice between work or school and make it about work and school. And by the way, probably lead with work instead of leading with school. Now, this is probably good news for your former employer, Guild Education and the other providers of workplace education benefits, whether that's inStride or EdAssist. Maybe leading with work instead of education is also the way forward for more institutions.

Jeff Selingo:

And there's one more data point in the HCM research that seems to point us in that direction, and it's this. When given a list of things that provide an excellent or a good value, the degree falls, as Terrell told us, "In the middle of the pack." Other things like, one, job training, two, a course to receive a license, three, a course to receive a professional certificate, they ranked highest for both high schoolers and non-enrollees. Then came the four and two-year college degree. And then came by the way, boot camps at the bottom. So that's curious to me, Michael, so I'd love to get your thought on that. I was really surprised to see colleges in the middle of the pack and boot camps, that were the darling of the ASV+GSV set a decade ago, at the bottom.

Michael Horn:

Yeah, for sure. I mean, when you think about the boot camps. But I think it speaks to some of the challenges that the boot camps have had, and let's start there. In other words, how they haven't been able to figure out in the language of disruptive innovation go up market and be more than just basic technical skills trainers for that first job in an industry in many cases. Now, of course, we're going to get hate mail from a bunch of friends at boot camps. There're exceptions. There're some that are great at this, but I think you're seeing people just get a sense and realize, hey, it might pay off, but it might not. And so there's much more uncertainty around it in the market.

Michael Horn:

I think I was less surprised, Jeff, about where the colleges placed because of the combination of a lot of the things that you just talked about. The opportunity cost, high tuition, student loans, and deeply uncertain outcomes. And so all that is saying, "Yeah, it would be great if I had it, but the risk is really high." And look, we know that on average a degree is the best thing, but when someone asks me, "Should everyone go to college?" Jeff, my answer at this point is no. Yes, some definitely should. The experience itself is great, the value is great. But for many people it isn't the right thing. You might go into debt-

Jeff Selingo:

We're also going to get hate mail on that too, by the way.

Michael Horn:

Yes, I know. And I'm looking forward to it. But I mean, look, if you're going to be one of those students that goes into debt and doesn't get a degree, which is a lot of students, it's not a good idea for you. If your heart is not in the work of college and you want to work in the trades, then college is not a good idea for you. You might graduate, but you'd be underemployed because you're enrolling in one of the many colleges or many programs where the job that you'll get after you graduate won't require your degree. Well, then it's not a good idea for you either. And as you know, The HEA Group just had another big report on how there are a number of colleges where the ROI simply isn't there. Preston Cooper released something similar recently.

Michael Horn:

So I guess I'm just not surprised, given that the level of investment required, the cost, as you noted, given that that's there, these options, they don't rank as high as they used to. And we should be clear on the other end of it, it's not like job training is a slam dunk. But I think the denominator, Jeff, in terms of time and cost is lower, so it feels less risky. And getting a professional certificate, the ROI could be extremely clear typically on what that's going to get you in terms of a salary or a raise or something like that. And so I actually look at the survey and I think people are doing very rational cost benefit calculations given the percentages not the ideal use case in many times.

Jeff Selingo:

Yeah, Michael, I think I agree with you on the rational use cases there around cost. I guess I'm a little nervous about saying college isn't a good idea. Speaking of GSV, I did a small talk there, and there was a veteran in the audience who said he went to the army after high school, he eventually got his college degree, and he said people just treated him differently after he had a college degree.

Michael Horn:

No question.

Jeff Selingo:

So I do get concerned where people say, "Well, college may not be a good idea for you." And then people think that's forever, and I don't think that's forever. I think maybe it might not be a good idea right after high school. But I still do think that despite all the concerns about the value of higher education, that over the long run, there's still this payoff. And I'm curious on this because I'm hearing this a lot more from parents, especially now, we mentioned that earlier thing that Paul Tough where parents are saying, "Well, maybe our kids won't go to college." I think some of that is driven a little bit by the students themselves, by the teenagers themselves.

Jeff Selingo:

And I'm curious about any thoughts you might have on social media here, because I hear from parents who tell me their kids, "They want to be an actor or an influencer." I still can't believe that's a job title. And not go to college because that's what they see on their social feeds. It reminds me back in our day, Michael, I know when I was in second grade, I wanted to be a Major League Baseball player, and we know how that worked out.

Michael Horn:

Well, Jeff, maybe they're looking at your Instagram though and they want to be an influencer like you. But look, I guess the odds there, of being an athlete or an, "Influencer," they aren't that great. These are classic winner take all markets where the returns are, and we should say it, they're huge, really big at the top, but they almost all accrue to the top. And so the average, I think, is really distorted both in terms of what people see and then when you calculate the numbers, I'm guessing, as well. And frankly I hear the same thing as you anecdotally, that it really changes how people view their options. And maybe this will mollify some of the folks that are upset at me for saying college isn't right for everyone. I'm really not excited about this trend where social media is exerting this influence. And I think elevating other options besides college is a good thing. But to me, elevating these pipe dreams, that's not healthy because then I'm not actually making an informed decision as an individual.

Michael Horn:

And that's my bigger push here. Look, I think middle and high schools, they need to be doing much more work here to be giving students a much broader view of all the different careers and ways they can contribute in life. And then being super clear about what the pathways are to getting there and what the payoff is and how many get to have that experience. And I think those should be built into the academics themselves. But I think this is maybe where I'd love to end this and get your take on this with a question for you, which is, as you know, there's a big focus on guides in high school and throughout college, colleges we know have reworked the advising model, but mostly on the academic side and college advising itself hasn't really changed. And we know the caseloads are just huge for most counselors. So that seems like part of the solution here if we're talking about educating people about pathways so that they can find the right fit for them. But given the odds, the numbers and so forth, what can be done here in your view?

Jeff Selingo:

Yeah, Michael, let me first start with the non-enrollees because I think that's a huge problem according to this study. And as you know, I think both of us are big fans of gap years, but one thing I always tell parents when it comes to this idea of guides is to make sure that they include three things in a gap year experience. One is an academic experience. So take an online course, for example. A structured experience, whether that's work, travel, volunteer, make sure you're not just sitting in your bedroom for that year. But here's the big one, a mentor advisor who is an adult that can act as a sounding board. Because that's the thing about non-enrollees in this study too. They're no longer in high school with a high school counselor. They're not in college with academic advisors or other advisors. They really are in a gap between with really no assistance.

Jeff Selingo:

Now say what you want to say about high school counselors, and I know parents like to complain about the lack of help on that front. But how would you like to have zero advising? And I think that's what a lot of these non-enrollees have. Now, how can we improve this at the high school level in particular, at the college level a little bit? Well, absent hiring more people to reduce the caseload in high school, it seems to me that it has to be done with some sort of asynchronous video, some sort of technology then enters here. I really wish TikTok or Instagram at the corporate level, by the way, and I guess probably within a year, maybe it won't be TikTok if it's banned. Or somebody else would really put a lot of money behind this to produce videos about careers, jobs, education, and the education needed to get those jobs.

Jeff Selingo:

Now, we have some of this with things from Roadtrip Nation and the College Guidance Network, but I think we really need this at a much bigger scale, essentially scale to all schools throughout the US. The fact is that we all know how many teenagers pick careers based on what is familiar to them, not necessarily what they might be passionate about. If they're neighbors or parents or parents of friends are doctors, lawyers and teachers, they're going to likely choose one of those paths as well. And we know that many occupations are found primarily only in certain regions. Tech jobs, for example, are largely concentrated along the coast, so swaths of students really have no exposure to careers that might interest them.

Jeff Selingo:

Just this morning, Michael, my youngest, Rory, and I were listening to How I Built This in the car on the way to school. And as I mentioned to you before and elsewhere, I love listening to that show with my kids, especially with products or companies they know well. Our favorite was Tate's Cookies, by the way. I could just taste them as we were listening to that. But the problem with that show, I love that show by the way, but the problem with it is they're founder stories. And as you know, I have this idea for another podcast that would do the same with people in their 20s and 30s who just have good jobs, they aren't the types of jobs we tend to celebrate, but they're good jobs. These are people that are happy and they can serve as examples for others. We're just looking for a sponsor of that podcast, so hopefully somebody listening here will say, "Ah, great idea. Let's do it." Because I think that information like that in the hands of students where they have examples of people can really be helpful as they think about what's next.

Michael Horn:

Yeah, I think it's a great point. I would love to see you do that podcast. So anyone listening, figure out a way to make that happen with Jeff. Because as you know, I had Guy Raz on The Future of Education recently, actually, and I agree he's really into kids programming, so maybe there's a collaboration here to be done. But we will work on that offline. And we'll leave this conversation here for now. But just a big thank you to Terrell Dunn for joining us in really a terrific and nuanced conversation up front. And a thank you to the Gates Foundation for making this dialogue and data visible and relevant in the conversation. And thanks to all of you, of course, for joining us on Future You.